The Bruins owe the Blue Jackets.
You’ve got to love how the Boston Bruins clinched their playoff berth — as confirmed by the club’s media relations department — tonight. Without even playing a game, the Bruins wrapped up their second straight postseason trip when Florida lost to Columbus, 3-1.
So a box of cigars should be on its way from the Hub to Ken Hitchcock and his club as I write this.
Next up for the Bruins: the Northeast Division title. The Bruins can clinch that by beating New Jersey Sunday after Montreal dropped a 5-2 decision to Toronto tonight.
Published By mattk Sun. March 22, 2009 1:51 am EDT
Nah, nothing for a Philly guy.
So… a box of cigars to John Stevens?
Wow, that’s a lot of math. Well, if Philly hangs on here it’ll all be academic. Thanks for reading.
OK, so the long comment showed up. One small correction: New Jersey would, of course, have to win their game with Boston, giving them 109 points.
The Flyers are now leading the Penguins 2-0 in the third period, and if they hold on for the win (even in OT/SO), then the Bruins will clinch.
The Penguins could still catch the Bruins, and there would still be 8 (or 16) different multi-way ties at 45-27-10 that could (theoretically) have the Bruins needing a tiebreak to stay out of ninth. But all of those ties would include the Canadiens, against whom the Bruins have earned 9 points in 5 games. That’s enough to make the difference and ensure that someone else has to lose the tiebreak.
The Panthers and Hurricanes play each other only once (tomorrow, in fact). It is, however, true that someone has to get two points and someone has to get less than two. But if the Panthers get the two points and the Hurricanes get one for an overtime or shootout loss, both teams could still theoretically catch the Bruins at 100 points: Carolina ahead with 46 wins and Florida tied with 45 wins.
I left a long comment with a specific counterexample scenario, but it didn’t show up even as “Awaiting moderation” – it was probably too long for the blog software. I can email it to you if you’re interested.
Actually, the Panthers and Hurricanes only play each other once (tomorrow in Florida at 7:30 ET). But it is true that someone has to get two points and someone has to get less than two. In the theoretical scenario that I mentioned, the Panthers must win that game in overtime or a shootout.
Those teams would have to win all their other games, and the Bruins lose all theirs in regulation; that’s already 28 specific game results, putting the scenario firmly in the realm of the theoretical. And that’s only a small part of it!
Here’s a complete scenario where the Bruins finish ninth (assuming it doesn’t get truncated by the blog software):
1 – New Jersey
Current record: 47-21-3
Results required: OL vs everyone (11 games)
Final record: 47-21-14 @ 108 points
2 – Montreal
Current record: 36-27-9
Required: W vs everyone (10 games)
Final record: 46-27-9 @ 101 points
3 – Carolina
Current record: 39-28-7
Required: OL vs FLA; W vs everyone else (7 games)
Final record: 46-28-8 @ 100 points
Wins the tiebreak for division leader (one more win than WAS & FLA)
4 – Pittsburgh
Current record: 39-26-8
Required: OL vs MTL, CAR, FLA; W vs everyone else (6 games)
Final record: 45-26-11 @ 101 points
5 – New York Rangers
Current record: 38-26-8
Required: OL vs PIT, MTL, CAR; W vs everyone else (7 games)
Final record: 45-26-11 @ 101 points
6 – Washington
Current record: 45-23-6
Required: OL vs PHI, FLA; 2 OL + 4 RL vs other teams
Final record: 45-27-10 @ 100 points
Among tied teams: 19 of 28 points ~ 67.9%
7 – Philadelphia
Current record: 38-22-10
Required: RL vs FLA (twice); W vs BOS, WAS; 5 W + 3 RL vs other teams
Final record: 45-27-10 @ 100 points
Among tied teams: 15 of 24 points = 62.5%
8 – Florida
Current record: 35-27-10
Required: W vs everyone (10 games)
Final record: 45-27-10 @ 100 points
Among tied teams: 15 of 28 points ~ 53.6%
9 – Boston
Current record: 45-17-10
Required: RL vs everyone (10 games)
Final record: 45-27-10 @ 100 points
Among tied teams: 12 of 24 points = 50.0%
The way Bruins PR explains it, with the Panthers and Hurricanes playing each other twice before the end of the season, someone has to get two points and someone has to get less than two. Thus the Bruins have clinched.
Sorry, but the Bruins’ media relations department (and various sports news sites) got it wrong. There are still some theoretically possible four-way ties at 45-27-10, e.g., with the Capitals, Flyers, and Panthers, where the Bruins could lose the tiebreak and miss the playoffs.
(Why *four-way* ties? Because even though the Bruins have won their season series with the Panthers, if other teams are brought into the tie, the Bruins could have the lowest percentage of points among the tied teams.)
You almost need to be a mathematician to work it out… fortunately, I am one.