Bergeron/By S. Bradley
Your responses to my request for mailbag questions, again, overwhelmed me. As I started to write the answer to the first question in my mailbox, I realized I exceeded 700 words and wasn’t done. So without writing a Bill Simmons-like manifesto, here’s the answer to that first question:
Scott Comeau wrote:
What do you expect Zdeno Chara and Patrice Bergeron will each get in terms of money and length of contract? I realize this is a tough question, however please give me an educated guess.
MK: Well, of course, they’re both going to get 20-year deals that average $3 million per cap hit and the Bruins are going to take any NHL challenges to the deals all the way to the Supreme Court … of hockey. I believe Barry Melrose is the Chief Justice.
But seriously, these are two players that are in different situations as far as their careers are concerned, and two players the Bruins cannot afford to lose for nothing on the open market.
When you look at Chara, 33, you look at an unprecedented physical specimen in the hockey world, who believes he could be a great player until his early 40s. His agent has always made that point a couple times. So even if the NHL office would look the other way, there isn’t going to be a “retirement deal” here. As one of the top five defensemen in the league, the captain of the Bruins and the player the team would struggle the most to replace on a short- or long-term basis, Chara really holds all the leverage here. Based on that alone, I don’t see him taking a cut from his $7.5 million annual salary.
Obviously, Chara’s been very vocal about his desire to win in Boston. That, along with maybe some willingness on Boston’s part to lock him up just about as long as he has left to play, might bring his cap number down into the $6 to $6.5 million range. That would be fair, I think, for both sides. Were he to hit the open market, however, Chara might be willing to do something shorter term for the money he’s making now and really go for it. What if Nicklas Lidstrom hangs them up after this season. There’d be a gaping hole on the Detroit blue line for Chara to fill, along with the right amount of money available. The bidding war would get pretty fierce next summer, with teams that have the cap room and teams that would be willing to make room for the type of player that hits the open market once every five years (and with the new landscape might not hit free agency for eight years or more going forward).
So if Boston isn’t willing to go beyond say four years, we’d probably be looking at a cap hit right around where Chara’s number sits at this minute.
When it comes to Bergeron, who’s finishing up a deal that has paid him an average of $4.75 million, things get a little sticky. If you’re willing to say that Bergeron is going to be the same player four, five years down the road that he is now – a shutdown center with power-play skills and great accuracy in the faceoff circle –- you could project him out at about $3.5 to $4 million. But Bergeron is still just 25 and lost about a season and a half of his development to injury. Last season, for all intents and purposes was just his fourth full season at full strength.
While his offensive numbers have dipped, his all-around play has soared – enough to earn a Canadian Olympic berth. There’s no telling how high his offensive totals could rise with a change of role on the Bruins or another team. If Bergeron keeps up his solid defensive zone play, and on a deeper Boston team suddenly pops in 75 to 80 points (including playing on a better power play), he would have to be looking at a raise into the $5, $6 million per season range. Tons of teams would be willing to give it to him (especially a certain Quebec-based franchise).
Boston cannot boast about its great depth at center and sing Bergeron’s praises for the good of the Olympic selections and then expect him to take a pay cut. This is a player that’s still on the cusp of his prime, has shown he’s physically back to where he needs to be and also provides a dose of quiet leadership that any team would love to have.
In Bergeron’s case, I also think it’s important to get this extension done before the season or, at the latest, by the All-Star break. Boston has to know that Bergeron’s play is only going to raise his stock. Showing him they love him as much as he’s repeatedly said he loves Boston would be in the Bruins’ best interest. So ultimately, I think Bergeron gets around $5.5 million on a four- or five-year deal.
Of course, these ballpark estimates are done without looking at who else will be on the open market or how they would fit into Boston’s payroll/salary cap next season or beyond. There’s no doubt that even after general manager Peter Chiarelli makes the move he needs to make to clear cap space just for this season, if he completes extensions with Chara and Bergeron, he won’t be out of the woods as far as next season in terms of cap space, his logjam at center and other factors.
Jimmy,
I have been playing with Chara’s numbers much like you have here. I too think they can lower Z’s cap hit by 1 to 1.5 mil a season…..at the very least 500k.
Of course this will only work if PC gives him a 6-8 yr deal. Im not sure if that will happen. At this point, it looks like big Z will be a very effective player to the age of 40. However, if he is not, a long deal like that will end up biting the organization in the arse.
This contract extention will be very important to the Bruins future, I am very curious to see how it plays out.
chara will be 34 at the end of his contract at the end of this year. his cap hit presently is around 7.5 like you have said. if the bruins sign him for 8 years where he makes 7.5 for the first 3 years at which point he will be 37 at that point i think it can be fait to say his age will start to catch up to him and the pay can start to come down so perhaps the 4th year he could go down to 6.5 then down to 5.5 at 39 down to 4.5 at 40 4.0 for the next 2 years then 3 mil a year for the final 2 years of his contract. a conract like this is front loaded , but should be approved by the nhl because it reflects his value the whole time and his agent has said chara expects to play into his 40s it also makes his cap hit 6.06 down which is down 1.44 million a year. which would allow the bruins the space they need to give bergy a cap hit that remains about the same at 4.5- 5 mil a year for 4-5 years. in doing that and losing sturm and ryder and having the influx of solid youth. also the serious future consideration of trading the cap friendly and uber talented savard next year should open up 12-14 million a season. this coupled with how the nhl cap seems to be increasing by 1-2 million a year should allow the bruins to field a exremly talented and youn team with the ability to keep all the youngster they choose to keep. keep in mind to bergeron is 25 and projects to get better. he is the 2nd best center on the team and needs to be kept. it is more important than keeping chara. considering the fact 2 defensemen of sidenbergs talent would more than make up for chara if you have a goalie of rasks skill if he keeps up his game.
Grant,
Your points are valid. My only comment would be…..While I really like Savy and hope he is here for a long time, if it comes down to a choice between Bergy and Savy at some point, I feel you have to give the nod to Bergy, simply because of age. Unless, of course he prices himself out of Boston. However, 5.5mil could be a reasonable number given his value on the open market.
Maybe PC will find a way to keep both, of course if he can sign Bergy for 3.5-4, I am all for it.
Chara was a July 1 signing and Bergeron signed in August.
Curious… Did Chara and Bergeron’s present deals get done prior to the cap? If that is the case – I think the player has to weigh that into their expectations.
I really value Bergeron… but do you sign Bergeron for 5.5 or keep Savard at 4?! (cap hits) I don’t think you can get around this. Seguin and Krecji are not going anywhere. Seguin ain’t playing wing for his career – so what gives? Not just Ryder comes off the books either. We could lose Wheeler, Sturm, Ryder and Recchi. That’s a lot of forward positions for only $10 or $11 mil – Some of those slots need to be goal scorers, and that skill will always cost you. If you give Bergeron another $1 plus per year.. you’re biting even further into that money for forwards, or you have to cut on D.
If we get Bergeron to sign for $3.5-$4 I think its a good bet… anything more makes think about leaning toward keeping Savy instead.
Bergeron has had a couple of very serious concussions. His offensive numbers have also dipped. I think it is imperative at this juncture not to romanticize the worth of a player, even a guy like Bergeron who is loved by all (including me). Ryder was supposed to be the real deal too, and know he is the butt of everyone’s ill will. Look at Tim Thomas too…same deal. If we sign Bergeron to a long term deal to get a reasonable cap number, and he doesn’t perform above 50 points per year, and heaven forbid if he has another concussion, then you are stuck with another player eating up valuable cap space for an extended period of time. What’s wrong with a shorter term deal, say three years, based on his most recent numbers? Fair market value over the short term is fair to the player and the team. If he does go through the roof, then he gets paid a better contract at the end of the next one. Crystal ball gazing usually has a horrendous result.
Mat I think you assessed both players perfectly!!! And Keith you’re totally right too, they need to get these deals done now before they have their “contract year”! Which i anticpiate with such a strong looking team!!! Go B’s can’t wait!
There are worse things in the NHL than having 4 guys who can play center at a high level. I say Bergeron is a MUST sign. Chara too. You have to open the check book for these two. You get Ryder’s money off the books next year and hope to use that money for some of the young kids who will have another year of AHL experience (Colburn, Caron, etc) I would get these deals done now, in the slow period. They will not effect this years number one bit.