Crunching numbers to gauge value of Bruins Julien’s defense-first system
So there you have it. Thanks to Nicholas for crunching the numbers. And for those worried that the Bruins might focus too much on defense, these results should now factor into your argument.
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interesting… but take a look just at the bruins. the season that they played an up tempo, puck possession, pushing back defenders with speed, and neared the top of the league in scoring was their most successful season under julien. and the playoff collapse that year at least wasnt blowing a 3 game lead and a lead in game 7. they were also arguably more physical that year too, but not sure if the stats back that one up, more of how I remember it.
sure their defensive game was strong that year, thomas won vezina, chara won norris (which is arguably not a defensive trophy), and julien won the jack adams… but their success was found in the total package: scoring, skating, defense, goaltending, being physical, special teams. hockey is the ultimate team game, not the ultimate scoring game or the ultimate defensive game. cup winners and perrennial contenders are built as complete teams.
Fun with stats. Good times. A couple things come to mind when reading this:
1. Defense wins championships – true, but more valid in sports like football, basketball and baseball where the emphasis can be placed on overall team defense. I don’t think this plays a large a factor in playoff hockey, where lousy team defense can be mitigated with a hot goalie, and stout team defense can be off-set by a lousy goalie. Examples last playoffs would be Philly (good team D and so-so goaltending) and Montreal (good goaltending and so-so team defense), both doing well for different defensive reasons.
2. Do these numbers change when separated out for regular season vs. playoff hockey? Regular season = watered down talent, where you are likely to see higer goal differential and different nunbers all around due to those fun 8-1 thumpings of the Islanders in November. Don’t see too many blowouts in the playoffs, so wouldn’t the value of the other categories play a larger role?
3. SOG and Save Percentage – How do these numbers look for game-winning teams in the playoffs? Instead of looking at just goal-related categories, I’d venture that there might be a correlation between the # of shots a team lets up vs. win percentage. The Bruins are going on the philosophy that it’s ok to give up a lot of shots as long as they are not quality. Will this stratgy work? Doesn’t seem likely to me…shot leaders in the NHL are also goal leaders. Guys like Sedin, Malkin, Ovechkin, Crosby, Nash, Stamkos all lead the NHL in shots taken, and most (except Ovie) lead in % of shots resulting in goals…all hovering around 20-22%. Contrast this to someone like Chara, who scores on 3.5% of his shots taken.
Anyway…fun article. LOVE to debate stuff like this. Much more enjoyable than “Julien is going to ruin Seguin” and other nonsense.
Julien is a good coach no doubting that but not for the way the bruins are built .We spend too much time sitting back on a one goal lead hopeiing tim thomas will save the day.Todays game is all about speed and puck movement .We spend too much time without the puck and running around in our own end.Think about it we sit back and Thomas has to make 45 saves and we loose in a shootout i don’t call that good defense.Maybe thats why Ryder is not scoring 30 goals he is to busy worrying about the guy next to him scoring he forgets what he was brought here to do.Iam huge bruins fan but i don’t see this team going far in the playoffs
Nice go at ” statistics”, but does not reflect winning hockey. Julien’s strict defense first is stifling, and only successful when the players break the mold as needed. Last nite Timmy was lousy. Atlanta should not have scored and the Bruins more up-tempo game never really allowed a good scoring chance. Pavelec was superb = game won
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