
Thomas/By S. Bradley
Would a 54-28 split of Bruins goaltending starts between Tim Thomas and Tuukka Rask, respectively, calm the masses by the end of the season?
Because that’s how head coach Claude Julien divvied up the starts during the 2008-09 season, when the Bruins finished atop the Eastern Conference and Thomas won the Vezina Trophy. Thomas started 52, Manny Fernandez 27 and Rask one.
Of course, through 38 games that season, Thomas had made 22 starts and was on pace to make just 44 starts for the season. In the second half, Fernandez’s achy back made him less reliable for Julien to call on so Thomas picked up the slack. By the season’s final weeks, however, Fernandez was practically alternating with Thomas.
Julien has said time and again since he first took the Bruins job that he believes it takes two goaltenders to win anything in today’s NHL. With the youthful, full-of-promise Rask at his disposal, there’s no way Julien’s going to keep on the current pace that would see Thomas make 58 starts. Nor is it likely Thomas will even make the 54 he made it ’08-09.
Thomas had made 24 of 38 starts at this point last season. By the end of year, Rask — who took over as the No. 1 by mid-March — had made 39 starts to Thomas’ 43. While everyone was up in arms this season that Thomas made seven straight starts through Jan. 1 and then had to go in to relieve Rask that night in Buffalo, it’s worth noting that last December Thomas also made seven straight starts at one point (inciting nary a complaint from the peanut gallery). Rask got his turn to start five straight in November, but that was because of an injury to Thomas.
Now if wearing out Thomas is your concern, consider that in ’08-09 he made 54 starts and posted a goals-against average of 2.10 and save percentage of .933. Thomas’ postseason numbers, however, showed little sign that he had racked up so many minutes. Against Montreal and Carolina, he recorded a .935 save percentage and 1.85 GAA — making him the player least responsible for Boston’s early demise in the postseason.
Thomas is now 36, and he’ll be 37 by the time the 2011 playoffs start. Determining whether age will factor in his performance is a tough task. We know his age and that he’s coming off major hip surgery last offseason, but we also know that he is putting up Hall-of-Fame numbers (1.80 GAA, .945 save percentage) this season and seems more spry with his repaired hip. If some baseball pitchers get better after Tommy John surgery, why can’t a goaltender find a little fountain of youth in a hip procedure?
Somewhat inspired by a post today by Marc Foster of Hockey Prospectus involving goaltender workloads, I decided to take a glance and see if there was precedent for a 32-year-old-plus goaltender taking his team deep in the playoffs after carrying a heavy workload during the regular season. Like Foster, I focused on the goaltenders from the last few years’ NHL final four because that’s how far everyone knows the Bruins have to go this season to have their season considered a success after back-to-back second-round flameouts. I used 32 as an age because it fit the research for such a small sample size and because when you look at Thomas’ overall career body of work he’s a “young 36.” (Remember, that was one of general manager Peter Chiarelli’s reasons for re-signing the netminder to a four-year deal).
One comparable popped last season (yes, in the year of the “solid-but-not-superstar” goaltender) with San Jose. The Sharks went three rounds behind Evgeni Nabokov, who made 71 starts before the postseason and posted stats of 2.43 and .922. In the playoffs, his played tailed off slightly and he posted a 2.56 and .907, which was good enough to get to the NHL semifinals.
The 2007-08 Dallas Stars succumbed to the eventual Stanley Cup-champion Detroit Red Wings in the Western Conference finals, but Marty Turco improved his numbers from the regular season to the postseason despite making 60 starts. He posted a 2.31 and .909 in the regular season, but then was lights out with a 2.08 and .922 in the playoffs.
Of the 12 goaltenders (including repeat participants) in the last three NHL semifinal series, Nikolai Khabibulin was the closest in age to Thomas at 36 when the Chicago Blackhawks’ run started in ’09. Khabibulin though had split the regular season with Cristobal Huet, 40-40, before taking over as the No. 1 in the playoffs. While Khabibulin’s workload during his regular season — during which he posted a 2.33 and .919 — isn’t comparable to what Thomas will probably finish with this season, it’s telling that there wasn’t a major drop-off in his numbers (2.93, .898) in the postseason, where the competition gets tougher.
If the Bruins are planning on playing Thomas upwards of 60, 70 games, there would be a real reason to be ready to storm the TD Garden and demand the coach’s head. We know both from what Julien has said and done, that he’s probably leaning toward a more-even split than he even used the year Thomas was voted the league’s best goalie. The coach’s decision to ride the hot hand early in the year isn’t without precedent. And there have been goalies in Thomas’ age range that have put their teams on the precipice of the Cup final after playing a lot more games that Thomas is going to wind up logging.
So put the pitchforks and torches down because there will plenty of playing time for both Thomas and Rask over the final 44 games, and they should both be fresh and ready to go come playoff time.









There seems to be alot of support for Rask here, however I agree with Bruno and Jim. That said, I do like Rask and hope he continues to shine when he gets his opportunities. However, Timmy has given us the best chance to win this year and should be the #1 netminder.
If CJ correctly manages these two excellent goaltenders the rest of the way, the Bruins could find themselves heading to the playoffs with a very high seed.
To me the Bruins’ best chance of winning consistently is with Tim Thomas in goal. I like Rask and look forward to having him be a mainstay for the Bruins in the years to come. But, the Bruins best goaltender right now is Tim Thomas.
I would go with Thomas for most of the season. He´ll need time to recover and thats when Rask should come up. I see no reason why rush Rask into this year. The kid is young and can have a nice year as backup goalie developing more.
I really hope that Julien chooses his starter Thurs on what he thinks will give us the best goaltending performance on Saturday in Montreal. You can say what you will about whether Rask has earned another start or not, but he has to keep the big picture in mind, and Saturday is a huge game for the Bruins where they can really make a statement. That said, I don’t know if Thomas resting for 6 days (I’m assuming he starts because he is dominating this season) is the best thing for him. SO I hope that factors more into Julien’s decision.
Thomas is the No. 1 right now. I don’t think there is a dispute there. But the guy not playing each night is not a loser. Of the last 44, my hope would be Rask sees the ice 18-20 times.
I do think goalies get tired, but the focus for me is really during the season as it leads into the playoffs. Sure I think the goalies get tired as the playoffs go forward (Rask last year), but it is how fresh they are at the start of the playoffs that is most important, I think. As the season goes on and the schedule crunches down, it would be nice to have two fresh, hot goalies come March. 60/40 split down the stretch is what I would do.
Yeah I exaggerated the figure slightly, but you get my meaning — it’s a significant dropoff statistically. Those numbers on a starting goalie regular season or playoffs aren’t acceptable in this day and age.
But that’s beside the point. The main thing is the question of rask’s confidence, which I personal don’t think is really an issue. He always struck me as a pretty steady guy mentally. The only real bad goal in that game was the third one. Anyway, it’s all being picky. Julien made the right decision, got him in there the next game and ultimately I do think Rask has earned the start against minnesota even if the win was against the worst offense. Now if he has a poor game, or so-so next time then Thomas goes right back in there, but it’s in everybody’s best interest to have these two competing together.
Stu, its a .6 drop off in goals, closer to half a goal a game than a full goal, but that’s splitting hairs. and the percentage is under .900 but only by .002. I agree its a bigger drop off than the stats appear considering a lot of playoff hockey is realtively low scoring, defintiely much tighter play all around.
Rask may have earned another start by his play vs one of the weakest offenses in the league, but his being pulled from the Buffalo game had a lot to do with his mindset than his need to get time or to get Timmy rest/less losses. Timmy can rebound from a loss like that. I think the determining factor in who starts is more based on confidence/where their heads are at than anything else. I’d love to see Thomas get a little more rest though.
Kalman, I know you only have so much space and time, but another thing you could have evaluated is how often a backup or late season hot hand has taken a team deep into the playoffs. Long ago Ken Dryden of course, but in more recent years Osgood took over late for Vernon once, Hasek too I think. Cam Ward pretty noticeable too. And you did mention Rask’s takeover last year. So I think that despite how dirty Thomas has been this year, it might be statistically just as likely (or at least a close correlation) that Rask gets hot again and takes the team deep in the playoffs despite the slow start or very little play throughout the regular season. Just something else to think about I suppose.
Khabibulin’s numbers going from 2.33 and .919 to 2.93 and .898 is a huge dropoff, nearly amounting to one more goal a game.
The concern shouldn’t be based on numbers, but for me the biggest thing was that Thomas has shown signs of his game dipping a bit lately, so it was integral to get rask back into the cage. Thomas seems to thrive on competitiveness so this will help the vet. The biggest problem was the pull of Rask in the buffalo game put the two goalies in a tough spot — setting thomas up to lose the game and possibly giving rask the impression that he wasnt getting a fair shake. Now, it sounded like Julien wasnt going to give rask the chance again against the leafs, but obviously given how poorly thomas looked in relief duty the organisation came to their senses and made the right decision.
The right decision again would be to go back with rask against the wild and ride him until they get a loss. But it wouldnt be the end of the world if they put thomas in either. Still, no denying rask played well against the leafs and deserves the next start.
on your marks, get set, GO RASK FANBOYS!!!
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