Seguin/By S. Bradley
The guys at Hockey Prospectus are publishing their “summer skate” 2011-12 projections for the 30 NHL teams on the ESPN Insider site.
Today they started with the Stanley Cup champion Bruins.
While you need Insider access to read the article, here are some excerpts of the piece written by Corey Pronman and Ryan Popilchak.
The article lists a player trending up, one trending down and one name to know.
The player trending up according to Hockey Prospectus and their VUKOTA projection system is Tyler Seguin. As the article explains:
Last season, he managed to score 1.44 points per 60 minutes of ice time, which is only slightly below the scoring rate of an NHL top-six forward.
So the HP argument is that with the departure of Mark Recchi and Michael Ryder, there should be more 5-on-5 and power-play time for Seguin in his second year to soar statistically.
For the player trending down, HP picked Tim Thomas. When you think about it, there’s really nowhere for his numbers to go than down.
HP writes:
Thomas set the single-season record for save percentage at .938 and the likelihood that he’ll be able to duplicate such a historical performance is very low, especially adding in the fact that he’ll be 37 years old next season and he’s backed up by the uber-talented Tuukka Rask. VUKOTA expects Rask to play 38 games in 2011-12 versus only 26 this past season, which seems to be a reasonable assumption if coach Claude Julien wants to keep Thomas fresh for another Cup run next year.
As for the name to know, HP is predicted a breakthrough second pro season for forward Jordan Caron. HP writes:
Caron isn’t a flashy player, but he’s a hard-working, two-way forward who can score goals at an above-average level and is a great weapon to plant in front of the opposing net. There are forward prospects with more raw scoring talent in the Bruins’ system who may push for a spot in the not too distant future, such as Khokhlachev, Maxime Sauve and Ryan Spooner. However Caron has the pro-level physique having filled out well and possesses the ability to play well on the bottom two lines. He could push for a starting role on the defending champions in a lesser role this season and has enough talent to generate some offense as well.
These seem like pretty safe projections by HP. I’d also look for an uptick in production from Johnny Boychuk, a drop-off by Brad Marchand and would keep an eye on Jamie Arniel as someone with a chance to push for a bottom-six lineup spot.
Disagree on Marchand. Kids a beast, and will score 20 no problem if healthy, getting more playing time this year. His shot is deceptive as per the Vancouver Canucks. Agree on all else though.
I think Marchand will score more goals because he will likely begin the season on the second line rather than the 4th. I honestly don’t see a sophomore slump for Marchand.
I think Marchand scores 20 again. I think Caron can put up double digit goals. I think Seguin has a huge year if given the chance, ie, playing with Bergeron and Marchand. Caron is going to have to earn his ice time just like Marchand did. I think he fits nicely with Peverley and Kelly.
I would play Rask in at least 35 games, if not 50% of the games, so long as he is playing well, of course. A short summer and one more year on TT’s body and he will need some rest for the repeat run
@Hendrik..I was wondering the same thing. Here is what I found. According to Sports-Opinionated.com: GVT – Goals Versus Threshold is a total value stat created by Tom Awad to show a players value versus replacement level. It shows total contribution for Even Strength, Powerplay and Short-handed while approximating playing time. However, it is a count stat, not a rate stat, so more games can result in a higher GVT.
Can anyone please explain me what the GVT is?
I think the key to Marchand’s sophomore season is who lines up next to him and Bergy- be it Peverley, Caron, Pouliout, or Seguin. Whether or not the Bergeron line takes on the character of a bona-fide top line again or just an above average ‘shutdown’ line will depend on which one of these guys really sticks, if any at all.
Speaking of Marchy… how soon do we have to start worrying about the possibility of a holdout? It doesn’t seem likely, judging by how both sides have responded to inquiry thus far, but that said its starting to get awfully late in the offseason, wouldn’t you think?
Is it possible we will actually see higher point totals out of Marchand? There may be some dip typical of a sophomore slump, but playing with the big boys for the whole year should still generate for more points at the end of the season
Re chi has stated he wants to get into player development in the NHL and who better than him Sign him up now or you’ll lose him. He has a connection with several of the young talent but needs a few more years with them
Ha, Timo. I didn’t even have access to your stats. I was just going on observation. That’s cool.
MK
Karl
Good call! Recchi would be a good addition to our coaching staff! However, I think he and his brother are owners of the Kamploops Blazers of the Western Hockey League, so he may want to concentrate his efforts here.
That would be correct, sir. We’re projecting Boychuk’s value to go up by about a goal-and-a-half, from 4.3 GVT to 5.9 GVT, and for Marchand–unestablished before this season–to drop from his surprising 11.2 GVT to 7.9 GVT. With the overall volatility of goalies, we’re looking for an uptick from Rask as well, from 5.6 GVT to 10.2 GVT, offsetting some of what we think Thomas will give back. He had the near-Vezina season in 2009-10 to back that up.
wish chia would hire recchin ball before he has to go work for pitt or philly. latter would be a great mentor for caron and the ex hab dude.
get ready for Caronistas! That sounds so much better anyway.