You vote: Looking for this season’s breakout rookie
Who's this year's Marchand?/By S. Bradley
Last season it took a while for people to believe in Brad Marchand.
Part of that was because of the Bruins’ depth and part was because he had been less than impressive during his NHL stint in 2009-10.
After he made the team out of training camp, he started the year on the fourth line. He stayed there for most of the first half. While he played well alongside Gregory Campbell and Shawn Thornton, he didn’t fully blossom until he was promoted to the line with Patrice Bergeron and Mark Recchi.
There are even less roster positions open this year than last. However, that doesn’t mean some rookie can’t impress in camp or later and become not just a lineup fixture but a fan favorite.
So I ask you:
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Thanks Cormac. Lucic’s physical presence is on the mind of every team they play against. I have been a supporter of Caron becoming a regular because he will add to the physical play of the Bruins. Defenseman get tired of being bashed and start getting rid of the puck in a hurry, which results turnovers(goals). As well, during the playoffs, I thought other teams started to shoot from farther away because of the bodychecks thrown by Sidenberg, Chara, Boychuk, and to a lesser degree McQuaid and Ferrence.
Some have commented on goals but I think Seguin will move up regarding scoring. Nick P and Johnny Boychuk should have better offensive numbers next year, as well.
Bruins16,
Great comment on Lucic. His overall play for the B’s is dynamic. His scoring also comes against opponents #1 D-man pairings and checking lines, unlike JVR’s ’10-’11 points.
As the majority here have stated, JVR isn’t now, and may never be, like Lucic, Perry, Clowe, Iginla, Nash..the total package NHL “power forward”.
Whoa
Some of you are equating goal scoring with the total value of a player. Lucic will score, but his physical presence is just as important. Some of you must have missed the playoffs! The physical presence of our forwards, led by Lucic, caused opposing defenseman to cough up the puck more than once (Vancouver). Lucic makes other players better becuase of his physical presence, i.e. Horton, Krecji. I would just as soon see a 3-1 victory, for the B’s, with bone crushing checks by Lucic, Sidenberg, Horton, Boychuk, Chara, etc., than 7-5 skatefest. Goals are fine, but defense wins cups i.e. 2011 Stanley Cup Playoffs. Lucic does check! JVR is a fine player, but I would be very upset if the B’s ever trade Lucic the way he is playing now. Some have to remember, we are the Stanley Cup Champions! Team chemistry is part of it, and Lucic contributes to it. NO one in the NHL embodies the great power forwards of the past, Neely, Gillies, Shanahan, more than Lucic. Furthermore, no one plays better against the Habs, and Neely would never let it happen!
Bo,
Do you remember the contract we signed Lucic to? It’s pretty similar although shorter than JVR’s I believe a fundamental misunderstanding has occurred in the conversation in that my argument is that JVR will very likely be a better power forward than Lucic, although right now he obviously is not. Based on a reread of the posts, I lost a lot of clarity about what I was arguing. My original argument was a response to a misguided though that JVR is a good comparable for Marchand’s contract which is pretty ridiculous. As you yourself quire correctly stated, he is our Versteeg. I don’t recall you ever making that argument about lucic being overrated, but I do recall you wanting Nash for Lucic/something. The reason I say JVR can be better than Lucic is that he has more skill. he won’t be better at the power forward aspects, but will be better at the scoring aspect, and because he can play the power forward game, though not as well as Lucic, will probably be a better player. If we want to discuss this further, let’s start there.
As for this contract, It’s the best thing Holmgren has done all summer, which isn’t saying much. I think it can be a bit risky if JVR doesn’t develop, but he has the skills and showed he can be pretty clutch at playoff time. This is actually very comparable the the contract Lucic signed, which I though was high at the time but is working out pretty well for us. This has the same structure: he has one season to grow into the contract or just not play up to it because he will still be on his entry-level deal. I’m a little dubious about the length of term, but for Holmgren, this is like a half a season deal. It does has a potential to be a huge saving for the flyers down the road though. It’s definitely better than the Bryzgalov signing, that’s for sure.
As for contract projections, the reason Marchand shouldn’t be paid highly (the original point of all this) is because he hasn’t proven consistency. Those contracts you mentioned are great indicators of why GM’s look for it and how they can use NHL data to make good projections of value. Of course, there are the Milburys of the Hockey world who sign players to crazy deals, and players that just don’t pan out (CLS can tell you what that’s like.) Additionally trends, when expected help a GM project what a player will be worth so a fair contract can be tendered, which is usually the case with younger players. Still using Seguin as an example, He scored how much despite being paid $3M? we expect he will grow because we have seen his skill level and his family was the best source of character we had. Now we have seen something of him, and no longer need those as the sole basis for his contract.
David you are obviously new to the party around here. No one – literally no one has voiced an opinion that Looch is more overrated by Bostonians than me. I’m the guy who was arguing for packaging Looch with the number 9 we had last year to go get a goal scorer.
You’re all wet tween the legs about a kid who hasn’t proven himself at all and just got a ridiculous contract. Have you not read that GMs around the league aren’t happy with Philly inflating contracts.
Your argument about contracts and projections is really weak. You must be one of the Seguinistas or something. According to your argument, Alexander Daigle was a great player because he was drafted high and received a large contract b/c of it. Your argument is that JVR is better than Looch – all I’m saying is save it for when and IF he proves it. I guess the contract makes the player, right? I guess we should trade Marchand for Avery b/c Avery makes twice as much….
David,
’10-’11 stats
JVR 22yo – average ice time 14:31, 21-19-40 points, + 15, 35 PIM
Lucic 23yo -average ice time 16:34, 30-32-62 points, + 28, 185 PIM
JVR has some NHL growing to do. I’d say his ice time will jump by at least 4-5 minutes/game (considering the scoring holes) when Carter and Richards were traded. If he wants more “ice space” he’ll have to earn it, considering the added defensive attention he’ll be receiving from opponents.
Bo,
Yes, goals win games. That’s why they show up on the scoreboard. Lucic brings a lot to the table, including borderline play. He’s a great player to be sure, but my argument is that JVR has a greater talent for the sport and will likely score more in the future in addition to having characteristics of a power forward.
If you don’t like projections, the why do you bother reading about contracts? Players are paid for what they are projected to do based on their skill level and past play. Why do you think Seguin makes $3m per year? Why do you think Cgy was tossing around trading Iginla to us for the 2nd pick in 2010? I’m a Bruins fan, but there are players in the league who are better than the guys on our team or will be better than the guys on our team. Lucic is very good at what he does, but I think we hold him at an artificially high value here because he has many of the traits we feel personifies the bruins, so an argument that there may be a better power forward up and coming or presently in the league tends to tick us off. (BTW, Corey Perry is the best in the league right now).
Goals win Games?! That is the most simplistic and ridiculous comment regarding winning formulas in hockey, I’ve ever read.
And if you think Lucic’s game is ‘hits’ – again you don’t get it. Even if your argument is about ‘goals’ being the most valuable asset – Looch seems ahead in your grading as well.
And PLEASE.. don’t start getting into projections. JVR is a goal scorer once he actually scores some goals – not before.
Neelyforpres,
Homerism has apparently not been left aside. True, there are far fewer better at creating space than Lucic. However, the two are both reasonable defensively leaving the only things Lucic does notably better in as fighting and hitting. While hitting intimidates opponents and opens up space, using that space is also a key. That’s where JVR is waaay better. He can create space (maybe not as much) but he can use that space a lot better than Lucic which is why he is the overall better power forward. Goals win games, not hits.
David,
JVR projects to be a better PWF than Lucic? Homerism aside are you out of your mind? JVR may be a better skilled forward but as far as all other aspects of a PWF game He can’t even sniff Lucic’s jock. Come on man!!!!
Frank I think it is very possible that one of the other Providence forwards could make the team. But for them I think it depends a lot on how they do at camp. Caron I also think is well liked by Julien and has more NHL experience. Sauve, Arniel, and a few others may come in and surprise and earn a spot on the roster.
Kampfer isn’t a rookie-he played too many games, but I think he is the #7 defenseman.
Agree with you M & M: I voted for unlisted Max Sauve. Just like I voted a year ago for the unexpected Brad Marchand to have a breakout year
Bo,
$3 for 3 is high I think and that’s a good comparison with Versteeg, but that’s just a guess of the outcome based on how things are going. I think Marchand is worth $2.5M tops, but I just can’t see Chia paying more than $3 million. If he does get better, he may grow into that value, and as it stands we are nowhere near the cap, even when Saavy’s hit is added in, so slight overpayment this year could be O.K., but not longterm.
Caron looked good early in the year (for the tryout period) and after those 10 games he had 2 points I think and was not a + player. I think part of his appeal is that he hasn’t acheived as much as Kampfer, so can do more.
Jared Knight is playing in London in the juniors this year. I know this because I live in London and the team is rooming him with Max Domi (Ty’s son) because both have diabetes (and they must be sure he won’t make the Bruins out of camp). So stroke him off that list. I’m pretty sure Spooner will be back in Junior too. That leaves two defencemen fighting for the 7th defence spot, which means Jordan Caron, who looked good last year, will easily be the best of this group next year.
Marchand on the Bs = Versteeg on the Hawks. How did that contract turn out. All of you ready to fork over $3 for 3 years should definately keep your day jobs!
I bet on Kampfer in this poll. I really liked what I saw from Steven (except for his disregard of his own body). Caron, despite what we all read, did NOT have a good season last year. While he made the team out of camp, his numbers on the Bs leave MUCH to be desired, and his numbers in Providence were way less impressive than I’d hope for from him. Careful not to get caught up in his scouting report – you can’t just slot him in for a Hall of Famer b/c they have ‘similar games’ according to Hockey Prospectus or some other publication. He’s still a kid and last I saw him with a spoked B on his chest, he was lost.
Kampfer on the other hand played very well carrying the puck and creating offensive pressure until he got his own bell rung with his reckless play. I like Kampfer to add a very nice compliment to the Bs O once someone goes down.
I voted Caron. Mostly by default, because I don’t think any of the others are likely to make the team this year. Maybe somebody else from Providence will but I think Kampfer is leaps and bounds better than other prospects right now (and he isn’t technically a rookie he played too many games last season) and Caron is probably the most likely 13th forward.
I think Knight and Spooner get another year in juniors.
Rich,
So how would that make JVR a better comparable?
BK,
Results do, for sure. Most GM’s, especially Chiarelli like seeing CONSISTENT results. Marchand’s only leverage is a great postseason, which does count for a lot. But do you remember Raycroft? Hornqvist? No matter how good Marchand was that postseason, he will be getting paid for projected production based off of previous performance. That means it would be very risky to sign him to a multi-year deal at big salaries, especially given what’s in the pipeline. The reason he is predicted to have make $3 million or less is because his only real leverage is sitting out the season, which doesn’t do much to help one’s value. If this gets ugly, he may sign for a year at about $2.5million although I am guessing $3million per for 3yrs would be a closer bet.
I give Max Sauve the write in vote for breakout. Spooner and Knight cannot be sent down to Providence this season, too young, after they make the team so 20 games possibly then back to the OHL.
For either young bucks too surpass Pouliot, Sauve, Arniel or Caron the young duo would really have to blow the doors off. Possibly but my odds are on the chaps who played a full season in the AHL already.
Hey David,
PROJECTIONS dont get you paid, RESULTS do.. and they had similar numbers and marchand won a cup!
The reason that Couture is NOT a comparable is that he was not a free agent, even a RFA. He signed an extension for a very low amount because he had no real leverage, and wanted to re-work he rookie deal before a new CBA. Simply not the some situation at all.
Even if Arnott wants to use it as leverage, that’s a stretch since JVR has a considerably higher projection than Marchand. He promises to be a better power forward than Lucic, but not nearly as good as Neely, wheras Marchand has already met his top-end projection. You’re right for sure, Cormac, but I don’t think it’s really all that much leverage especially when you consider what Coture signed for as well as Grabner. Also remember that Coture had a great playoffs too, so he’s a real solid comparable.
Caron get the vote here. He plays B’s style hockey with a net-crashing offense, like Recchin’ Ball Lite.
So I picked up the Maple Street Press publication MattK advertised on here a week or so ago, and it’s really good so far. I’ve read a quarter of it so far and am very happy with it. No adds, just good, level-headed assessments and good reports and stories. Really glad I picked it up and thanks for editing a great publication MattK!
Cormac
I agree, JVR had a similar season and was just as effective as Marchand was during the playoffs.. It will be interesting to see how this unfolds.
BK,
I’m sure Arnott will use the “ridiculous” extension and $’s the flyers gave JVR yesterday as leverage.
I voted for Jordan Caron. I also think Maxime Sauve and Jared Knight will get the opportunity to impress with the B’s this season.
Is this Marchand contract situation about to get ugly??